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GTAP Resource #4723

"Projections of Economic Impacts Resulting of Demographic Change in Brazil for the Period 2010 to 2050"
by Santiago, Flaviane, Edson Domingues, Mônica Andrade and Geoffrey Hewings

One of the possible consequences of the demographic and epidemiological transition that Brazilian population has experienced is the change in the consumption pattern of households. Empirically, it can be observed that consumer spent significantly change over the life cycle, then, the understanding of changes in consumption patterns associated with aging is essential due to its impacts on the productive structure of the country. In this context, the main aim of this thesis is to analyze the long-term changes in the production structure and in sectorial composition from Brazil resulting from the change in consumption patterns. To analyze these effects, this work use a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) with recursive dynamics. This model allows highlighting all sectorial linkage effects that changes in the vector of consumption - resulting from demographic changes - will affect in Brazilian economy until 2050. The projected results indicated an increase in demand for some goods and services, especially for health services (medicines, hospital assistance and health insurance), besides services provided to families and energy consumption; and a decrease in others, especially in food and education sectors.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2015
Created: Santiago, F. (4/14/2015)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/1/2015)
Visits: 1,546
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Dynamic modeling
- Demographics
- Health
- Other data bases and data issues
- South America

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