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GTAP Resource #4748

"Forecasts of Future Labour Market Requirements for Oman: An Application of the OMAGE model"
by Adams, Philip, Nhi Tran and James Giesecke

In this Report, we use a new, detailed economic model of the Omani economy to forecast labour-market requirements to the year 2030. The model is called OMAGE (the Oman Applied General Equilibrium model). OMAGE has two parts. One part focuses on labour demand. At its core is a detailed explanation of how the economy behaves and ultimately what determines industry-requirements for labour by occupation, skill/qualification and citizenship. The second part focuses on labour supply. At its core is a largely demographic explanation of the economy’s supply of labour by occupation, skill/qualification and citizenship.
Because OMAGE contains modelling of both demand and supply, it has the capacity to be run in two different modes:
• Integrated - in which labour supply is integrated with labour demand. In this mode, labour demand and labour supply are reconciled by endogenous wage movements and by gradual adjustment of qualification acquisition patterns.
• Independent- (for gap analysis) in which the labour supply model is run independently of the labour demand model, with labour demand describing future workforce needs.
For applications in which we wish to uncover future workforce needs, it is important that short-run and medium-run supply-side constraints do not exert an undue influence on forecast (longer-term) labour needs. Therefore, for the forecasts in this report, we adopt an intermediate position, with growth in employment demand for Omanis tied to growth in labour supply of Omanis. For Non-Omanis we assume perfectly elastic supply at a real wage rate which moves in line with the real wage rate received by Omanis. This means that labour-supply and employment for non-Omanis is generally determined by employment demand.
Key inputs to the forecasts include information from external forecasting agencies on population and labour-force participation, commodity-using technological and household-taste changes, multi-factor productivity, and oil production and pri...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Created: Tran, N. (4/15/2015)
Updated: Tran, N. (4/15/2015)
Visits: 1,492
- Dynamic modeling
- Education
- Labor market issues
- Middle East

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