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GTAP Resource #4787

"THE IMPLICATIONS OF HIV/AIDS FOR DEMOGRAPHICS, GROWTH, AND POVERTY IN SOUTHERN AFRICA"
by Ahmed, S. Amer and Marcio Cruz


Abstract
Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes in the coming decades with the rising working age share of its population. Recent analyses suggest if African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11 to 15 percent of GDP volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40 to 60 million fewer poor in 2030. One major threat to the maintenance of favorable demographic trends, is the impact of HIV/AIDS. As of 2011, about 70 percent of the people living with HIV/AIDS reside in Africa, with the region having an incidence of 4.9 percent. In the case of Southern Africa – Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland – the incidence is more than 20 percent. HIV/AIDS in the region has detrimentally affected economic growth and poverty reduction efforts. In regard to demographics, analyses from the early 1990s projected HIV/AIDS to lead to contractions in affected populations, with differential impacts across age-cohorts and gender.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Not published
By/In:
Date: 2015
Version:
Created: Ahmed, S. (4/15/2015)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/6/2015)
Visits: 625
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Economic growth
- Labor market issues
- Africa (Southern)


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