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GTAP Resource #4796

"Economic and Environmental Assessment of Expanded Bioenergy Production in China"
by Cai, Yongxia, Robert Beach and Dileep Birur

As the second largest oil consumer and the largest oil importer in the world, China’s oil consumption and oil imports are expected to continue to rise with the rapid growth of China’s economy, especially with the exponential growth in private car ownership. By 2030, 75 percent of China's oil consumption will be imported (IEA, 2008). This heavy reliance on imported oil raises concerns about national energy security, while the large increase in fossil fuel consumption conflicts with domestic and international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recognizing these concerns, China has developed policies to promote the use of bioenergy to enhance energy security and to lower air pollution and GHG emissions since 2000. However, due to concerns that increased grain ethanol production was increasing food prices and leading to greater food insecurity, China has moved to restrict the use of grains as bioenergy feedstocks. Instead, they are promoting the use of non-grains that grow on marginal and abandoned lands, such as cassava, sweet potato, sweet sorghum, sugarcane and sugar beets as bioenergy feedstocks. In addition, second generation bioenergy from woody biomass is in the conceptual stage, but is expected to grow rapidly due to abundant biomass resources and supportive governmental policies. With a production of 0.70 billion gallons of ethanol in 2013, China is currently the fourth largest producer of ethanol in the world behind only the United States, Brazil and Europe. The national targets for ethanol and biodiesel production are set to be 3.35 billion gallons and 0.60 billion gallons by 2020, respectively. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model -- the Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy model focusing on agriculture and land use (ADAGE-ALU), to assess China’s bioenergy potential in the short run and long run, including the impact on food prices, land use change and GHG emissions.

Several studies have attempted to ...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Created: Cai, Y. (4/15/2015)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/16/2015)
Visits: 2,231
- Dynamic modeling
- Renewable energy
- Land use
- Asia (East)

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