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GTAP Resource #4951

"An Integrative Economic-Transport Model Framework for Global Maritime Commodity Flow"
by Ong, Ghim Ping and Weng Sut Sou

Maritime trade is the backbone of international trade and the global economy. It is of interest to policy-makers and planners to be able to properly forecast the amount of maritime commodity flow between countries (in terms of monetary value and physical volume) for policy making and infrastructure development. Numerous efforts have been made in the past to forecast maritime demand but most of these studies were either adopting an economic approach or a transportation model. Few studies actually consider the forecasting of maritime demand from an integrative economic trade-transportation modelling perspective. This paper presents the development of a quantitative demand forecasting approach to predict global maritime demand and commodity flow. This integrated forecasting framework uses the transportation-based four-step model coupled with economic and trade theories. Computable general equilibrium models based on economic theories are first developed to derive the amount of trade between countries. Through the application of transport mode choice models, the amount of seaborne trade between countries can be estimated. Statistical models are then developed to convert commodity value into number of containers or volume. The developed model framework are then applied to study global maritime trade trends with a focus on maritime trade in the Asia-Pacific region. It is demonstrated through the case studies presented in the paper that the ability of the model to forecast maritime trade and the capability of the developed model to evaluate the impact of trade policies on maritime trade.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2016 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2016
Created: Ong, G. (4/14/2016)
Updated: Ong, G. (4/14/2016)
Visits: 1,944
- Trade in services
- Other data bases and data issues
- Asia (East)
- Asia (South-Central)

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