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GTAP Resource #5011

"Application of a fully integrated Macroeconomic-Environmental-Demographic-health (MED-health) model framework: The case of palm oil in Thailand."
by Jensen, Henning Tarp, Marcus Keogh-Brown, Richard D Smith, Sanjay Basu, Soledad Cuevas, Alan Dangour, Shabbir H Gheewala, Rosemary Green, Edward Joy, Nalitra Thaiprasert and Bhavani Shankar


Abstract
In this paper, we develop a novel dynamic and fully integrated Macroeconomic-Environmental-Demographic-health (MED-health) model with the ability to capture health, macroeconomic, population and environmental aspects of policies related to palm oil production and consumption and their implications for non-communicable disease (NCD) burdens in Thailand. The dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is calibrated on the basis of an adapted 2007 Thailand SAM (NESDB 2010). Nine regional household types are modelled, including Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA) and rural/urban areas of the remaining four regions (North, North East, Central excl. BMA, South), and nutritional exposure of regional household members are modelled through an adapted AIDS demand system with nutritional coefficients derived from national food balance sheets and a 2011 household survey (NSO 2012). Particular care has been taken in developing nutritional coefficients for micronutrients including polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and saturated fatty acids (SFA). The micronutrient exposure is used to compute average cholesterol level impacts and age-specific clinical health outcomes on the basis of Thailand-specific lookup-tables, derived from a Thailand-specific micro-simulation model which was constructed along the lines of a previously published micro-simulation model for India (Basu et al 2013). Health outcomes include excess mortality rates and life-years lost to disability (YLD) from Stroke and Myocardial Infarction, and economic feedback effects on health costs and effective labour force participation are modelled to allow for full model integration. The analyses of palm oil interventions demonstrate that reduced palm oil production and consumption may improve health indicators and have positive pecuniary health externalities on the Thai economy, but also that the income loss among Thai palm oil producers may be substantial. [Final paper will be published in autumn 2016]


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2016 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2016
Version:
Created: Jensen, H. (4/15/2016)
Updated: Jensen, H. (4/15/2016)
Visits: 1,909
- Health
- Agricultural policies
- Asia (Southeast)


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