Resource Center

Advanced Search
Technical Papers
Working Papers
Research Memoranda
GTAP-L Mailing List
CGE Books/Articles
Important References
Submit New Resource

GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #5087

"Making the Most of Demographic Change in Southern Africa"
by Ahmed, S. Amer and Marcio Cruz

The countries of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) have relatively diverse demographic and economic starting points. These economies have the potential realize demographic dividends, and experience an acceleration in their income per capita growth and poverty reduction progress through expected shifts in their age-structures. 35 to 75 percent of poverty reduction in 2015-50 in SACU economies could be attributed to demographic shifts in a business-as-usual scenario of economic development, if employment rates are at least maintained. However, due to their different demographic patterns and trends, qualitatively similar policy outcomes interact with their demographics to lead to varying growth and poverty outcomes. The magnitude of the demographic dividends could be higher if countries are able to achieve policy outcomes in parallel in the areas of education, savings-investment, and employment. Scenario analyses of these different policy outcomes interacting with the shifting age-structures in different ways, suggest quantitatively different economic impacts despite qualitatively similar policies. Improving educational attainment is found to be most important in Lesotho and Swaziland; mobilizing savings for higher investment can be most useful for Botswana; and improving employment rates, especially by closing gender gaps, can be most useful for South Africa and Namibia.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2016 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2016
Created: Ahmed, S. (4/15/2016)
Updated: Ahmed, S. (5/24/2016)
Visits: 1,096
- Demographics
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Economic development
- Economic growth
- Labor market issues
- Africa (Southern)

If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.

Public Access
  File format GTAP Resource 5087  (577.9 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)

Restricted Access
No documents have been attached.

Special Instructions
No instructions have been specified.

Comments (0 posted)
You must log in before entering comments.

No comments have been posted.