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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #5704

"Comparing Economic and Crop Models: The Case of Climatic and Agricultural Impacts of Nuclear War"
by Hochman, Gal, HAINAN ZHANG, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Saketh Aleti and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

In this paper, we simulate the economic effects of a regional nuclear event between India and Pakistan that results in 5 Tg of soot. The effects derived under the economic model are compared to those of the gridded crop model. Our analysis suggests that agro-economic models aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More specifically, policy lessons derived from a crop model can be significantly nuanced when coupled with economic feedback derived from economic models. On the other hand, the aggregation to regions masks the heterogeneity of the shocks across space and may significantly reduce its negative effect on production.

The conclusions of this work emphasize the importance of estimating demand and supply parameters of major agricultural and energy commodities, and of updating these estimates over time; as well as the importance of aggregation across space. With respect to policy, the analysis suggests that preserving the world trading system is key to preventing widespread famine and suffering – a thriving world trading system minimizes the costs born from disruptions to climate.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2019 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland
Date: 2019
Created: Hochman, G. (4/7/2019)
Updated: Hochman, G. (4/7/2019)
Visits: 1,557
- Baseline development
- Climate impacts
- Economic crisis
- Food prices and food security
- Non-Tariff barriers
- Not Applicable

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