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GTAP Resource #5735

"The Effects of Water Shortages on Food Security in Uganda"
by van Heerden, Jan, Louise Roos, Philip Adams and Nick Kilimani

Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of Uganda, we simulate the effects of water shortages and their impact on agricultural production and the broader Ugandan economy. It is expected that Ugandan crop production will be hit hard over the next forty years by increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation. We use forecasts from the literature for ten specific crop outputs to simulate the effects of weather-related agricultural disruption on the rest of the economy. We are particularly interested in the effects on food security in Uganda. We find that Uganda is far from being food secure, and hypothesize that if the pessimistic forecasts from the literature were to become true, then the situation would deteriorate significantly. The adaptation strategies for Uganda should be threefold: the country should diversify agricultural production to include more hardy crops; expand the manufacturing industry considerably, and develop water infrastructure so that households and agricultural industries can gain better access to the increasingly scarce resource.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2019 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Springer Books as a book chapter (Edited by Wittwer); Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland
Date: 2019
Created: van Heerden, J. (4/10/2019)
Updated: van Heerden, J. (4/10/2019)
Visits: 1,338
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Water availability
- Food prices and food security
- Africa (East)

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