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GTAP Resource #5831

"Global Economic Effects from Climate Impacts on Agriculture and Livestock: the Role of Land Use Changes and Broad Sectoral Coverage"
by Reilly, John, Angelo Gurgel and Elodie Blanc

Climate change impacts on agriculture production and food security has gained attention at scientific, political and business levels. However, much uncertainty remains regarding projections of climate impacts on yields and not enough attention has been given to the land use competition among alternative uses. We investigate the broad economic consequences of climate impacts on agricultural and livestock productivity. We use the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model with increased agricultural sector resolution, contrasting results based on the IPCC review of site-level crop models with crop impacts derived from global crop model developed as a statistical emulator of a Globally Gridded Crop Model. We run scenarios under several sets of assumptions, considering: land use changes among five broad land uses; no land use competition; climate impacts from global gridded crop models, using estimates from statistical emulators (Blanc 2017); a selection of yield impacts from regional and local studies, based on the review conducted by IPCC (Porter et al., 2014); impacts on crop yields only; impacts on crops, pastures and livestock. Land use trajectories derived from climate impacts on yields are highly dependent on the sign, size and coverage of such impacts. A limited or partial coverage of crops and livestock systems affected by climate will provide poor or misleading insights on land use trajectories and regional economic impacts in the CGE framework. We conclude that studies that only focus on a few crops for which yield estimates exist may underestimate substantially overall impacts. Land use change is an important adaptation option, often omitted in studies of climate impact on agriculture. Better estimates of impacts on livestock are needed as this could be an additional important impact of climate change on food. Climate impacts on agriculture affect emissions from the sector, and so impacts and emissions need to be evaluated together.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2019 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland
Date: 2019
Version: 1
Created: Gurgel, A. (4/15/2019)
Updated: Gurgel, A. (4/15/2019)
Visits: 1,210
- Dynamic modeling
- Climate impacts
- Land use

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