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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #5837

"Sugarcane expansion and their impacts on land use and food production in Brazil: exercises based on a computable general equilibrium model"
by Souza, Gessica, Angelo Gurgel and Feres José

Brazil is considered a world leader in the production of ethanol derived from sugarcane. It is questioned the existence of arable land that can shelter the expansion of the crop, without causing greater damage to the environment and society, that is, without worsening deforestation and increases in food prices. Thus, the main objective of this research was to project the impact of an increase in the demand for sugarcane destined for ethanol on land use and food production in Brazil, in scenarios of expansion and stagnation of production. The methodology used was the of general equilibrium, with modifications in the modeling in order to make the analysis feasible. One of the modifications in the model was the incorporation of a land use module and a conversion cost between the different types of land, allowing to capture the direct and indirect changes of land use, Direct Land Use Change (LUC) and Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC). The results suggest that Brazil has enough land to accommodate sugarcane growth projected for the year 2030. The expansion would occur at the expense of crop and pasture areas, mainly. The impact on deforestation would be relatively small, mainly in the North. There was competition between sugarcane production and crops, however, the decrease of crop areas did not seem to impact significantly on the price of food inputs and on the price of the final food. It was also verified that the northern region of Brazil accommodates the production of food inputs in order to satisfy the national and international demand for food. Finally, it was found that gains in productivity on land could accommodate the scenario of expansion without pressure for competition and promoting the reduction of deforestation.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2019 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland
Date: 2019
Created: Souza, G. (4/15/2019)
Updated: Souza, G. (4/28/2019)
Visits: 1,220
- Baseline development
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Land use
- Agricultural policies
- Food prices and food security
- Other data bases and data issues
- South America

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