Resource Center

Advanced Search
Technical Papers
Working Papers
Research Memoranda
GTAP-L Mailing List
CGE Books/Articles
Important References
Submit New Resource

GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #6306

"Impacts on Land Use Changes in the United States from Global Forces and Drivers: Searching for Tipping Points in a Multi System Dynamics Approach"
by Gurgel, Angelo, John Reilly and Elodie Blanc

Land use in the United States (US) is driven by multiple forces operating at the global level, such as income and population growth, yield and productivity improvement, trade policy, climate change, and changing diets. Future land use has implications for biodiversity, run-off, carbon storage, ecosystem values, agriculture, and the broader economy. We investigate those forces in the US and their implications from a multisector, multisystem dynamics (MSD) perspective focused on understanding dynamics and resilience in complex interdependent systems. Historical trends show slight increases in grassland and natural forest areas and decreases in cropland. We project these trends to intensify under higher pressures for agriculture land and reduce under lower pressures, with no evidence of tipping points toward larger agricultural land abandonment or deforestation. However, US sectoral output and trade, fertilizer use, N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture activities and CO2 emissions from land use changes are substantially impacted under several land use forcing scenarios.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2021 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2021
Version: 1
Created: Gurgel, A. (4/15/2021)
Updated: Gurgel, A. (5/29/2021)
Visits: 769
- Climate impacts
- Land use
- Trade and the environment
- Economic growth
- Technological change
- North America

If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.

Public Access
  File format Paper  (1.4 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)
  File format Presentation  (1.3 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)

Restricted Access
No documents have been attached.

Special Instructions
No instructions have been specified.

Comments (0 posted)
You must log in before entering comments.

No comments have been posted.