GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #6308 |
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"CGE modelling of the net impact from Australia's transition to a low-carbon economy" by Hodges, Cedric and David O'Callaghan Abstract To date, most macroeconomic models and economic policy modelling is done on a ‘baseline’ that assumes economic growth will occur unhindered by the increasing emissions intensity of economic output. Models inherently assume that as emissions grow, the economy grows, and everyone’s standard of living rises. We believe this viewpoint does not hold true in practice – particularly in the long-run – and therefore economic analysis and public policy making is informed through a dated theoretical framework. Climate change impacts should not be imposed as a ‘scenario’ on the baseline – because in the absence of fundamental societal and economic shifts, it is the baseline. To leave the economic impacts of a changing climate out of economic baselines and decision making misses a trick. The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), made up of 69 central banks including the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), this year released guidance the need to solve for this exact issue (and many others). Understanding and accounting for the longer-term effects of climate change on productivity, potential output and economic growth is critical to knowing the path of growth, and the distribution of the impacts of disruption. We have invested in developing an in-house Regional CGE Climate Integrated Assessment Model – which has been tested in Australian state jurisdictions – is a modelling method and policy analysis technique that seeks to ‘correct’ the typical business as usual baseline in modelling. |
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- Dynamic modeling - Climate change policy - Climate impacts - Oceania |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access No documents have been attached. Restricted Access  Paper_ANCACFC.pdf (7.1 MB) Replicated: 7 time(s)(Restricted to: 24th Annual Conference Participant) Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
