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GTAP Resource #6346

by Santos, Cárliton, Joaquim Bento Ferreira-Filho and Aryeverton Fortes De Oliveira

This paper investigates the potential socioeconomic impacts that climate change projected for 2040 may have on agriculture and the Brazilian economy, in its different regions. A recursive dynamic interregional CGE model calibrated for 2010, is used. Two scenarios of climate change are considered: an Intermediate Scenario (RCP4.5) - less severe - and a Pessimistic Scenario (RCP8.5) - more severe, based on the 5th and most recent IPCC report. Results suggest that climate change should cause Brazil's real GDP to shrink in both simulated scenarios, but this should be more intense in the Intermediate Scenario. They also point out that the losses will be greater for poorer households and for regions whose economy is more dependent on agriculture and, in particular, on soybeans; and that the actual consumption and well-being of households in the Midwest and part of the Northeast (in the part where the soybean crop is most representative) will be more affected than in other regions of Brazil.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2021 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2021
Created: Ferreira-Filho, J. (4/15/2021)
Updated: Ferreira-Filho, J. (6/23/2021)
Visits: 926
- Dynamic modeling
- Climate impacts
- South America

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