GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #6513 |
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"Macroeconomic and trade effects of restrictions in cross border labour mobility" by Smith, Donal, Przemyslaw Kowalski and Frank van Tongeren Abstract COVID-19 has drawn renewed attention to the economic importance of cross border mobility. Frictions in cross border mobility of labour can substantially impact the economy and international trade, by causing a long-term decrease in net migration that would alter the labour supply in many economies. To capture these macro-economic and trade effects, a global macroeconomic model (NiGEM) and a general equilibrium trade model (METRO) were used to simulate a stylised scenario equivalent to a 20% reduction in net-migration accumulated over the past ten years for all economies and regions. In OECD countries, this would translate into a reduction of the overall labour supply, and this shock would shift some economic activity towards non-OECD countries. At the sectoral level, exports of labour intensive manufacturing activities in OECD countries would contract, with electronics (13% of the total reduction of exports in the long term), automobiles (12%) and pharmaceuticals (9%) among the most affected. |
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- Advances in quantitative methods - Labor market issues - Migration |
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Public Access  Paper (2.2 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 8/11/2025 9:05:27 AM
