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GTAP Resource #6550

"Trade policy and land use impact"
by Antimiani, Alessandro and Erwin Corong

The relationship between international trade and environmental outcomes has been, and remains, contentious. Economic development, driven by increasing trade, could influence land use and food supply.
The relevance of such topic, not to mention detailed quantitative analysis are scarce in the literature. While computable general equilibrium (CGE) is widely-used tool for trade analyses, the use of CGE models with explicit land use is not widespread.
As first outcome, this paper addresses this by using the most recent version of GTAP-AEZ model consistent with the GTAP version 7 model (Corong et al., 2017). The new GTAPv7-AEZ model implements a new specification to account for land use competition and introduces an upward sloping land supply curves. The fact is that most crops can only grow on lands that is under certain temperature, moisture, soil type, land form, etc. The same concern arises for land use by the livestock and the forestry sectors. The introduction of the agro-ecological zoning in GTAP helps to clear up the counterfactual assumption in inter-sectoral land transition, and permit a sound presentation of sectoral competition for land.
The second outcome of this work is to use the model to evaluate the possible impact of the Potential effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on land use.
A shock in the economic system, a reduction of tariffs among African countries, impact the allocation of land. From a food security perspective, the trade agreement is expected to lead to a rise in food availability and food consumption. However, agricultural production is predicted to become more concentrated in a few regions, with a consequential impact on land use.
Results will help us to shine a light on the link between trade and land use, going behind simple speculations.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2022 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 25th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2022
Created: Antimiani, A. (4/14/2022)
Updated: Antimiani, A. (4/14/2022)
Visits: 549
- Model extension/development
- Preferential trading arrangements
- South America

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