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GTAP Resource #6592

"A Dynamic Path to a Low Carbon Economy"
by Bellora, Cecilia and Lionel Fontagné

Achieving the climate objectives set out in the Paris Agreement requires a transition to low-carbon energy and, more generally, the structural transformation of our economies. Studying these changes therefore requires first of all a detailed long-term trajectory of the economies. It is then on the basis of such a reference that the impacts of climate policies, and more generally of any long-term public policy, on the structure of economies can be studied through a counterfactual approach. Then, the question is ”How will the implementation of the commitments made in the NDCs transform the EU economies?” To answer this question, we proceed in two steps. First, we construct a long-term trajectory for the global economy up to 2050. Second, we analyze in detail the impacts of a transition to a more sustainable, less greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive economy, in line with the commitments made in the Paris Agreement.

The paper provides detailed results about the following outcomes: (i) the level of the carbon taxation required to meet the targets as set in the most recent NDCs, (ii) the size of the demand and investment displacement towards the sectors that emit less, (iii) the change in the energy mix required to achieve the target emission reductions, (iv) the size and direction of leakages caused by the presence of large free riders and (v) a quantification of the changes in comparative advantages across countries and the resulting impacts on trade.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2022
Created: Bellora, C. (4/15/2022)
Updated: Batta, G. (6/7/2022)
Visits: 678
- Climate change policy
- Trade and the environment
- European Union

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