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GTAP Resource #6847

"Global consumption patterns fuel trade-driven land-use change and biodiversity losses"
by Cisneros-Pineda, Alfredo, Abhishek Chaudhary, Uris Lantz Baldos, Yolanda Sung and Thomas Hertel

Past studies employing environmentally extended multi-region input-output (MRIO) approach have shown that consumption of imported products in many high-income countries drives deforestation and consequent biodiversity loss in the tropical low-income exporting countries. However, the MRIO analysis is not appropriate to capture the complexities of biodiversity loss associated with land-use change because it does not consider price induced changes in human consumption and production. Here we fill this research gap by using the general equilibrium version of GTAP model, where resource endowments are finite, and prices are endogenously determined via supply and demand. We simulate the impact of 1-million increase in population of 37 world regions on global production, consumption and trade patterns, and project changes in crop, pasture, and forestry land use in each region. The land-use change is then translated into increase in number of species threatened with extinction within the 18 agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of each region. Results show that a simultaneous increase of population in all regions would lead to an increase of 2M ha of cropland and 200K ha of pastureland and a loss of 0.5M ha of natural undisturbed vegetation and 1.5M ha of managed forests. The top regions projected to suffer highest species loss due to this increase in population are Indonesia, Madagascar, South and Central America. However, the magnitude of impact on biodiversity and location of impact varies widely depending upon where the population growth occurs. We also identified the economic sectors and three major mechanisms (domestic substitution of imports; direct increase in trade to satisfy the increased population abroad; and indirect increase in trade through third markets) driving the land use change and causing the biodiversity loss in each region. Our results provide insights on the global hotspots and that can be useful to for making progress towards sustainable development goals.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Version: 1
Created: Cisneros-Pineda, A. (4/11/2023)
Updated: Cisneros-Pineda, A. (4/11/2023)
Visits: 388
- Ecosystem services and biodiversity
- Land use
- Trade and the environment

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