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GTAP Resource #6850

"Socioeconomic and environmental impacts of degraded pasture recovery in Brazil: contribution to the NDC"
by Gianetti, Giovani William and Joaquim Bento Ferreira-Filho

Climate change adaptation policies and actions are being promoted by global commitments such as the Paris Agreement. Among the practices for low-carbon agriculture, the degraded pasture recovery (recuperação de pastagens degradadas - RPD) aims to mitigate the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions caused by cattle, the main source of emissions from the agricultural sector. RPD has shown the capacity to increase cattle production while allowing soil organic carbon (SOC) fixation, however, SOC change is not yet officially considered by Brazil. This paper evaluates the impacts of degraded pastures recovery in Brazil on socioeconomic aspects and on GHG mitigation targets of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). We used a Computable General Equilibrium model, TERM-BR15, simulating three scenarios for the period 2015 to 2035. Scenario 1 (SC1) simulates RPD shocks of livestock productivity, investments, and SOC fixation. Scenarios 2 and 3 are sensitivity analyses. For the impacts on emissions two carbon accounting methods were considered, the original method of Brazil's emissions inventory, which does not take into account SOC variation, and the alternative method, which includes SOC fixation from RPD. SC1 shows 0.57% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 0.71% in real household consumption relative to the 2035 baseline. There would be a social return of R$85.8 billion (in 2022 prices), representing R$8.31 for every real invested. Cattle ranching would expand production using less area, resulting in a land-saving effect of 972.6 thousand hectares in 2035. GHG emissions would increase by 9.3% in the original accounting method, resulting from herd and activity level growth. In the alternative method, 0.16% mitigation of emissions would occur, showing that SOC fixation can more than offset the economic activity growth. Brazil’s mitigation levels would be higher in 2025 and 2030 (42.86% and 38.89% respectively), but still not enough to meet the 2030 NDC target.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Created: Gianetti, G. (4/11/2023)
Updated: Gianetti, G. (7/27/2023)
Visits: 351
- Baseline development
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Climate change policy
- Environmental policies
- Land use
- Agricultural policies
- Economic development
- South America

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