GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #6891 |
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"Walking the Tightrope: Balancing the Impacts of Global Decoupling and Trade Agreements" by Radi, David Abstract As dramatic shifts in the global economy occur, and the unipolar world appears at threat, it is vital for policymakers to have a quantitative understanding of the potential economic impacts of a fragmented trading system and the effectiveness of potential strategies to mitigate the negative economic impacts that may arise. Using the GTAP-RD model, and the GTAP11P4 dataset with a 2017 reference year, this paper examines a set of hypothetical scenarios of a global economic decoupling, where the world economically diverges into opposing spheres of influence, and it becomes more difficult to trade between these respective allegiances. Secondly, we analyse the extent to which multilateral trade agreements could mitigate the potential damages. The results from these scenarios are then evaluated against two further sets of policies; 1. Prior to decoupling, some nations sign a cross-Pacific megaregional that cuts across opposing blocs and is assumed to remain intact despite decoupling and differing allegiances of members; 2. Following decoupling, members of each opposing bloc sign a large hypothetical megaregional agreement between themselves. A bespoke methodology is used that assigns countries to blocs drawing upon both the economic and political aspects of countries’ relationships . While highly speculative, and not aiming to predict the future, we model a set of illustrative global decoupling scenarios, aiming to provide valuable insights on the potential impacts of a fragmented trade system and what the role of multilateral agreements could be in a decoupled world. Various limitations are discussed, including a host of variables and economic mechanisms not captured in our modelling framework. We suggest potential improvements to expand upon the scope of this paper in future work. |
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- Dynamic modeling - Economic crisis - Economic growth - Multilateral trade negotiations - Preferential trading arrangements - Supply chains - Asia (East) - Asia (Southeast) - European Union - North America |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  Paper: Draft Walking the Tightrope: Balancing the Impacts of Global Decoupl (275.8 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 1:05:45 PM
