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GTAP Resource #6919

"Demystifying the Effects of AfCFTA: A General Equilibrium Approach"
by Zaki, Chahir

This paper estimates crucial parameters in the welfare analysis of trade policy changes- trade facilitation- using a structural gravity model for the disaggregate level of HS2. Extensive research has shown that trade facilitation has a significant potential for the welfare gain of trade policy. Tariff equivalents of non-tariff measures, such as –trade facilitation and infrastructure indicators vary across products and countries. In particular, they are needed to simulate the trade and welfare effects of trade liberalization’s transaction cost reduction potential. However, its estimation has been hindered by data and methodology constraints. In this study, we exploit a wide range of trade facilitation indicators (time to export/import, logistics performance index and enabling trade index) and use a panel structural gravity model to estimate the trade elasticities of these indicators and further computation of the ad valorem tariff equivalents. We find a significant impact of trade facilitation indicators on the trade flow that varies from a 0.24 per cent trade elasticity for one day delay to 2.29 per cent for the enabling trade index. Our results suggest that trade facilitation has a significant trade-enhancing effect across different countries.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Created: Zaki, C. (4/14/2023)
Updated: Zaki, C. (4/14/2023)
Visits: 218
- Dynamic modeling
- Bridging CGE and new quantitative trade (NQT) literature
- Non-Tariff barriers
- Econometric methods
- Africa (Central)
- Africa (East)
- Africa (North)
- Africa (Southern)
- Africa (West)

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