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GTAP Resource #6945

"Direct and embodied energy and emissions trade in a decarbonised world"
by Garaffa, Rafael, Jose Antonio Ordonez, Matthias Weitzel and Toon Vandyck

In this paper, we investigate global trade patterns in the timeframe 2020-2050, focusing on the development of embodied energy and GHG emissions in trade under three different decarbonisation scenarios: i) a current policies scenario, ii) an NDC-LTS scenario, reaching announced climate pledges, and iii) a 1.5 °C cost-efficient global temperature stabilization scenario. We rely on a comprehensive modelling toolbox building on the POLES-JRC partial equilibrium model, and JRC-GEM-E3 general equilibrium model. Based on multi-regional input output tables (MRIO) computed from this modelling framework, we provide a multidimensional analysis on embodied energy and emission flows, paying particular attention to direct and indirect trade impacts to fossil and non-fossil energy carriers. We assess the changes by region, fuels and sectors, considering the entire value chain of goods and services. Our results highlight how energy embodied in traded goods and services will shift from mainly embodied oil, coal and gas to date, to embodied low carbon electricity. GHG emissions embodied in goods and services are projected to decline, while the gap between production and consumption based accounting metrics of emission´s accounting is projected to decrease. Overall, our results contribute to the growing literature on how trade and globalization might develop in a decarbonizing global economy. Our results illustrate that the trade of goods and products can persist in an expanding and decarbonizing global economy.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Version: 1
Created: Ordonez, J. (4/14/2023)
Updated: Ordonez, J. (4/14/2023)
Visits: 274
- Model extension/development
- Climate change policy
- Trade and the environment
- Economic development
- Economic growth
- Technological change

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