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GTAP Resource #6948

"The War in Ukraine Disrupts Agricultural Value Chains, but Trade Policy Measures Can Mitigate the Impacts"
by Chepeliev, Maksym, Maryla Maliszewska and Maria Filipa Seara Pereira

The war in Ukraine is a dire human tragedy for the people of Ukraine. It also has major implications for the world agricultural and food markets, as the Black Sea region is a major supplier of crops and fertilizers. Implications of the war are further exacerbated by impacts of sanctions against Russia, spillover effects from other markets (energy), adverse weather events and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursue of food security. In this paper, using a comprehensive modelling framework, we decompose impacts of various shocks and show that net agricultural importers in the developing world are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of the war in Ukraine. However, implementation of trade facilitation measures and reduction of import tariffs on agricultural and food commodities could mitigate the impacts of the war. Such trade policies would boost agricultural trade, increase overall food availability and lead to the higher integration of agricultural and food commodities to the global value chains. The latter would make food systems more resilient to the potential future shocks and disruptions.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Created: Pereira, M. (4/14/2023)
Updated: Pereira, M. (4/14/2023)
Visits: 351
- Economic crisis
- Europe (Eastern)

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