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GTAP Resource #6950

"Circular Economy Transition in Türkiye"
by Chepeliev, Maksym, Thomas Farole, Andrea Liverani and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

Economic and population growth over the past 50 years have increased global natural resource use to levels that severely impact human wellbeing. Demand for material resources has skyrocketed from 27 billion tonnes in 1970 to around 100 billion today, and is expected to more than double again by 2050. Already today, current patterns of material resource extraction and use are associated as key drivers of natural resource degradation, pollution, climate change and biodiversity loss.
In Türkiye, as elsewhere, economic growth and urbanization have been accompanied by increasing levels of material consumption and waste. While the generation of municipal waste in Türkiye is below the OECD average, about 90% of Türkiye’s municipal waste is still sent to landfills. To address these challenges, Türkiye recognizes that it must transition to a more “circular” and material efficient growth model.
In this paper we focus on the assessment of the potential circular economy transition scenarios in Türkiye. To achieve this, we develop the new GTAP 11 circular economy (GTAP-CE) Data Base with 2017 reference year, which we then couple with a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model ENVISAGE. First, the baseline scenario that includes implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by countries of the world is constructed covering the timeframe till 2035. A set of circular economy-specific measures is implemented next. These include policies toward increased recycling, overall reduction in material use, change in consumption patterns toward dematerialization, change in the product design with an increase in material use efficiency and production life extension. The paper investigates implications of these policy measures on various dimensions of economic, social and environmental wellbeing, such as resource productivity, competitiveness, environmental sustainability, inclusion, economic security and developmental impacts.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Created: Chepeliev, M. (4/14/2023)
Updated: Chepeliev, M. (7/3/2023)
Visits: 400
- Dynamic modeling
- GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Domestic policy analysis
- Asia (South-Central)

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