GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #6993 |
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"Provincial Assessment of the Impacts of Coal Phase-out in China using the GTAP-E-Power model" by Benachir, Ines and Ying Kong Abstract Since China has set its goal to peak its carbon emission by 2030 and be net-zero by 2060, the country must phase out its coal capacity and operate its transition towards renewable energy sources. China’s coal production is distributed unevenly across provinces and will forcibly decline over the coming decades. On the other hand, deploying renewable energy can compensate for the fossil industry’s economic losses. This paper uses the GTAP-E-Power model with a disaggregated database to evaluate the impacts of coal phase-out nationally and in thirty-one Chinese provinces. The study imposes uniform shocks among provinces in China, where the capacity of electricity produced from renewable energy sources increases while the amount of coal-based energy and electricity decreases. The simulations show that even if China’s GDP records a negative variation during the initial phase of the simulation (2021-2030), a majority of the thirty-one provinces covered in this study recorded a positive increase in their GDP as a result of transitioning to renewable electricity sources. The study also finds that China and most of its provinces do not experience any significant change in their GDP from the second period of the simulation, spanning from 2030 to 2050. However, a mere phasing-out of coal will not be enough for China to achieve its net-zero objective by 2060, as emissions from other energy commodities may increase during the transition. Overall, the study suggests that phasing-out coal is a first step for China to reduce its carbon emissions and meet climate targets and it can also bring positive economic impacts, even for provinces with high reliance on coal. |
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- Climate change policy - GTAP Data Base and extensions |
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Public Access No documents have been attached. Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 1:05:45 PM
