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GTAP Resource #7001

"The Economic Impacts of Russia-Ukraine War Export Disruptions of Grain Commodities"
by Rose, Adam, Zhenhua Chen and Dan Wei

We apply the GTAP multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the economic impacts of the major disruptions of grain exports from the combatants of the Russia-Ukraine War on their own economies and those of others during the first year of hostilities. The simulation results indicate that these disruptions affect not only Ukraine and Russia but also generate significant cascading economic impacts both across other sectors and world regions. Of the two countries, our analysis indicates that export disruptions from Ukraine, will have the largest impact on its own economy, with a real GDP reduction of over $859 million (or a 0.65% decrease). Other countries/regions, such as the U.S., China, Japan, NATO countries (except the U.S. and Canada), the Rest of the Former Soviet Union and Africa, are projected to incur reductions in GDP of $20 million or more, with the Rest of Asia (not including China, Japan and India) projected to suffer a GDP loss of more than $500 million. Other countries/regions, including India, Canada and Latin America, stand to gain by filling in some of the production voids. The world economy is estimated to experience a net loss of $1.4 billion. In contrast the projected impact of its export disruptions on Russia’s GDP is only slightly over $3.8 million, and GDP impacts on the global economy are only $133 million, primarily because Russia’s economy is relatively much less dependent on grain exports and because of favorable terms of trade effects. No other country/region is expected to gain or lose more than $10 million, except European NATO countries, China and Rest of Asia.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Version: 2
Created: Rose, A. (4/15/2023)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/15/2023)
Visits: 131
- Agricultural policies
- Food prices and food security
- Economic crisis
- Supply chains
- Africa (Central)
- Africa (East)
- Africa (North)
- Africa (Southern)
- Africa (West)
- Europe (Eastern)

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