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GTAP Resource #7009

"Potential Long-Term Impact of the War in Ukraine: A Polycrisis in Cyprus"
by Sahin, Sebnem and Mertkan Hamit

The war initiated by Russia against Ukraine in February 2022 has resulted in the largest refugee migration in Europe since World War II: around 6.3 million people as estimated by the UNHCR (2022). This paper looks at the potential long-term impact of the war in Ukraine with a particular focus on Cyprus. One of the main reasons behind this focus on Cyprus is its state of polycrisis that has preceded the war, and the policies that existed towards the warring parties in Ukraine which differ in either respective community within Cyprus, due to the underlying complex conditions that are specific to the island state.
A special focus is granted to the leading sectors in Cyprus including tourism, energy, food, and construction. The Greek Cypriot economy is expected to experience steady growth based on IMF projections, while the Turkish Cypriot economy is expected to recover from its sharp decline in 2022 with an estimated 10% growth in GDP due to increasing interest in the construction sector. For the policy analysis, the standard GTAP data and CGE model is tailored to include the impact the war has had on Cypriot communities based on surveys and recent literature. Select micro-level data incorporated into the analysis ranges from border crossings and credit card spending by tourists, to work permit applications and trade between North and South Cyprus. Recent indicators show that the war exacerbated multiple pre-war crises in Cyprus and pushed the North Cypriot community towards a polycrisis. Policy recommendations highlight the potential for stronger reconciliation between the two communities based on the innovative solution examples by Greek and Cypriot communities in alleviating the adverse effects of the war.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Version: Draft
Created: Sahin, S. (4/15/2023)
Updated: Sahin, S. (4/15/2023)
Visits: 353
- Economic crisis
- Economic geography
- Europe (Eastern)

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Posted by: Sahin, Sebnem   4/15/2023 4:11:00 PM
Paper in progress