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GTAP Resource #7013

"A Computable General Equilibrium Modelling Approach to Assess Biodiversity Effects in Highly Detailed Global Long-Run Analysis"
by Goebel, Theresa and Wolfgang Britz

Model based ex-ante assessments are appropriate tools to comprehensively analyse biodiversity conservation efforts as they capture drivers of biodiversity loss and their interactions. In a global context, multi-regional dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models represent a suitable starting point for these assessments. This paper implements two post-model biodiversity indicators in the modular and open-source CGE modelling platform CGEBox. It thereby contributes to assess conservation effects of large-scale policies and developments quantitatively rather than qualitatively. CGEBox is based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and data. Both biodiversity indicators build on the land use results calculated with its Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) module. They differ in terms of the scoring systems applied. Structural changes in the socio-economic system can considerably impact biodiversity conservation. Thus, the GTAP-based Recursive Dynamic Economic Model (G-RDEM) is used in the analysis at hand to generate three baselines up to the year 2050. These follow exogenous assumptions of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 to 3. In this way, the biodiversity results are comprehensively analysed under different framework conditions, compared to each other, and tested for robustness. Preliminary results show that the two indicators set different foci due to their different scoring systems. This is reflected in significant differences in the absolute results of both indicators. In relative comparison over time, however, both indicators show comparable global trends. Biodiversity loss occurs in all three baselines. The indicator deterioration is particularly pronounced in tropical regions of Africa, Asia and South America. A comparison of the three baselines reveals that sustainable development is not necessarily ideal from a biodiversity conservation perspective. Both indicators show better results for about half of the regions in SSP3 than in SSP1.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Version: 01
Created: Goebel, T. (4/15/2023)
Updated: Goebel, T. (5/10/2023)
Visits: 319
- Advances in quantitative methods
- Baseline development
- Ecosystem services and biodiversity
- Land use
- GTAP Data Base and extensions

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