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GTAP Resource #7022

"Land use change implications of Power-to-Liquid Fuels"
by Taheripour, Farzad, Ehsanreza Sajedinia, Maksym Chepeliev and Omid Karami

Air transportation plays an important role in the global economy. However, unlike the road transportation, it is hard to decarbonize this sector due to the lack of options for direct electrification. Hence, its decarbonization relies heavily on hydrocarbon “drop-in” fuels, which can be used in the existing fleet. Among a few existing potential options, fuels made from renewable electricity via electrolysis, direct air capture of atmospheric CO2 and subsequent conversion to hydrocarbons (“Power to Liquid”, PtL) are promising.

The existing PtL pathways commonly require relatively high levels of electricity to produce SAFs. To be considered as a CORSIA eligible fuel, the required electricity for these pathways should be produced using low carbon intensive resources such as solar or wind. Land is an essential input to produce electricity from these resources. If the required land for solar and wind electricity are obtained from arable land, then that could intensify demand for these lands and cause induced land use changes, similar to the use of land for biofuel production.

Many papers have examined induced land use changes due to biofuel production and policy. However, no major effort has been made to evaluate ILUC emissions for the PtL pathways that use solar and wind electricity for SAF production. This paper aims to fill this knowledge gap by assessing ILUC emissions values for a representative PtL technology that produces SAF via solar electricity using a well-known Computable General Equilibrium model, GTAP-BIO.

The results demonstrate that, in general, producing SAF via PtL generate tiny ILUC values when electricity is generated on marginal land. The ILUC value is smaller, when we assume solar power plants are distributed across AEZs. When we assume the power plants are installed in a single AEZ (either in AEZ7 with the most efficient DNI, or in AEZ10 with the least efficient DNI) ILUC values grow slightly.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Created: Taheripour, F. (4/15/2023)
Updated: Taheripour, F. (6/21/2023)
Visits: 328
- Renewable energy
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Environmental policies

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