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GTAP Resource #7155

"Revisiting Development Strategy Under Climate Uncertainty: Case Study of Malawi"
by Mukashov, Askar, Timothy Thomas and James Thurlow

This paper scrutinizes the effectiveness of agriculture-led development as compared to non-agriculture-led development strategies, under the perspective of climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, for comparing these two strategies in the context of weather/climate-affected variability in crop yields. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses a non-agriculture-led approach in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite an escalating exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains an optimal strategy to alleviate poverty and undernourishment in Malawi. The study further endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into contemporary policymaking.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Version: Worrking paper version 1
Created: Mukashov, A. (4/6/2024)
Updated: Mukashov, A. (4/12/2024)
Visits: 70
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Sustainable development
- Agricultural policies
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Economic development
- Economic growth
- Advances in quantitative methods
- Model validation and sensitivity analysis
- Partial and general equilibrium models

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