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GTAP Resource #7194

"An integrated assessment of provincial economic damages from climate change in China"
by Peng, Hantang, Chen Fang, Tianpeng Wang, Yixiong Lu, Da Zhang and Xiliang Zhang


Abstract
Assessments of climate change damage at the provincial scale are crucial to designing climate policies in China, ensuring the efficiency and fairness of provincial mitigation strategies. While extensive research has addressed climate damages at the global and national scale, few studies have estimated China’s subnational economic damages from different sectors and evaluated the equilibrium impacts. Here, we develop an integrated assessment framework that combines climate projections, econometric analyses, process-based emulators, and a provincial computable general equilibrium model. We use this framework to construct estimates of economic damages from three channels – labor productivity, energy demand, and agriculture yield – in China’s provinces under two climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 126 and 245) for 2060. The collective impacts of the three damage channels result in national GDP changes of -5.0% and -3.3% in 2060 under the SSP245 and SSP126 scenarios, respectively. Importantly, these damages are distributed unequally across provinces, exhibiting a discernible north-south pattern: northern provinces experience relatively modest loss rates, while central and southern provinces incur more substantial losses.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Version:
Created: Peng, H. (4/12/2024)
Updated: Peng, H. (6/5/2024)
Visits: 154
- Climate impacts
- Model integration and coupling
- Partial and general equilibrium models
- Asia (East)


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