GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7198 |
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"Future Employment in Global Agriculture: Trends and Drivers in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" by Leip, Debbora, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Miodrag Stevanovic, Edna J. Molina Bacca, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alexander Popp and Hermann Lotze-Campen Abstract In 2021, 27% of global employment was in agriculture, forestry, hunting, or fishery. The income from agricultural employment is of crucial importance for rural livelihoods. Despite expanding production to provide food for a growing world population, agricultural employment has drastically decreased for many decades. The role of agricultural employment, e.g. in the context of rural development and poverty reduction, has been widely discussed in qualitative literature. However, global quantitative projections are absent in modelling scenarios of the land-use system. The future development of agricultural employment will be strongly influenced by changes on both the producer and consumer side of agricultural production. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) explore a range of future socioeconomic developments with varying implications for agricultural employment. Here we use a global agro-economic model to analyze how agricultural employment evolves across the SSPs and what drives these changes over time. Despite increases in the demand for agricultural products by 39-58% between 2020 and 2050, our results show a strong decline in the share of employment in agriculture in all SSPs from 16.7% of the working age population in 2020 to 4.1-12.3% in 2050, with increasing labor productivity being the strongest driver. The continuing shift from labor to capital as production factor further reduces the need for agricultural labor, especially in current low-income regions. If other sectors cannot absorb labor at the same pace, upcoming reductions in agricultural employment can lead to higher unemployment, loss of livelihoods, and increased poverty. Our study shows that to provide the future population with decent jobs and livelihoods, investments in establishing new job opportunities and training programs to facilitate the transition of primarily rural populations out of agriculture will be needed, and provides an estimate of the magnitude of this transformation. |
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- Environmental policies - Land use - Sustainable development - Other data bases and data issues - Demographics - Economic development - Labor market issues - Baseline development - Model extension/development |
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Public Access  Paper (10.8 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
