GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7223 |
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"A new approach to demographic projections and its application to international trade" by Samyrao, Kisshor Abstract An accurate understanding of a nation’s future population is necessary for an array of government and business decision making. An understanding of a nation’s demographics, the composition of its population by age and sex, provides even greater detail in the space of public policy. In this paper, I summarise the most widely used approach to demographic projecting (the cohort component method (CCM)) and discuss its strength and limitations when applied to policy making. This discussion then transitions to addressing the model’s limitations, where I present two amendments to the CCM approach that address accuracy and interpretability concerns highlighted in the literature. My new approach to demographic modelling, referred to as Recursive Polynomial Projections (RPP), is then applied to multiple nations and compared against other demographic publications. This section concludes by estimating inflection points in these nations’ demographic trajectories which may inform prospective policy making by their respective governments. Finally, I take the above demographic projections and apply them to a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. This exercise, which includes assumptions around technological growth and productivity, is aimed at exploring the interaction between population and trade pressures. This investigation concludes by highlighting three things: adverse demographic trends can significantly impact a nation’s output though this depends partially on its outstanding comparative advantage, Chinese trade hegemony is a strong likelihood in East-Asia by 2050, and finally that India is expected to see a rise in its involvement in global supply chains. |
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- Demographics - Economic growth - Migration - Dynamic modeling - Model extension/development - Model integration and coupling - Partial and general equilibrium models |
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Public Access  Paper (3.3 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
