GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7223 |
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"A case for demographic projections and its associated preference shifts for CGE modelling" by Samyrao, Kisshor Abstract Demographic change represents a significant alteration to the status quo for much of the world. Understanding the uncertainty around national population (and demographic) projections represents the first step in building confidence in long-term trade modelling such as with GTAP Dynamics. In this paper, I present the data and approach to conduct a series of Cohort Component Method (CCM) modelling of large economies before applying these results to the CGE model to understand how demographic change can affect projected international trade dynamics. This exercise highlights how uncertain trade flows are, given uncertainty over true population trends, as well as highlights how steps can be taken to increase the accuracy of certain commodity projections including healthcare and educational services demand - via the use of national preference shifts. |
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- Demographics - Economic growth - Education - Health - Migration - Dynamic modeling - Model extension/development - Model integration and coupling - Partial and general equilibrium models |
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Public Access  Paper (1.2 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 1:05:45 PM
