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GTAP Resource #7236

"Land-Use Competition in a 1.5°C Climate Stabilization Pathway"
by Gurgel, Angelo, Jennifer Morris, Martin Haigh, Andy D. Robertson, Robin van der Ploeg and Sergey Paltsev

Achieving a low-carbon future requires a comprehensive approach that combines emission mitigation options from economic activities with the sustainable use of land for numerous needs: food production, energy production, carbon sequestration, nature preservation and broad ecosystem services. Using the MIT Integrated Global System (IGSM) framework we analyze land-use competition in a 1.5°C climate stabilization scenario, in which demand for bioenergy and natural sinks increase along with the need for sustainable farming and food production. We find that despite numerous trade-offs, global land is sufficient to provide increased consumption of food per capita (without large diet changes) over the century while also utilizing 2.5-3.5 billion hectares (Gha) of land for nature-based solution (NBS) practices that provide a carbon sink of 3-6 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 per year as well as 0.4-0.6 Gha of land for energy production—0.2-0.3 Gha for 50-65 exajoules (EJ) per year of bioenergy and 0.2-0.35 Gha for 300-600 EJ/year of wind and solar power generation. Attaining this outcome, capable of delivering a 1.5°C future, requires effective policies and measures at national and global levels that promote efficient land use for food, energy and nature (including carbon sequestration), ensuring the long-term commitment needed to realize many of the benefits of climate change mitigation.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Created: Gurgel, A. (4/13/2024)
Updated: Gurgel, A. (5/28/2024)
Visits: 97
- Climate change policy
- Ecosystem services and biodiversity
- Land use
- Sustainable development

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