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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #7261

"Resilience of the Global Electric Vehicle Market under Cobalt Supply Risk Shocks"
by Sun, Yuanchen, Sanmang Wu, Jianwu He and Shantong Li

Abstract: Electric vehicles (EVs) are a key driver in the global low-carbon energy transition, with their market undergoing rapid expansion. Cobalt, a crucial raw material for EV battery production, sees most countries exhibiting high dependency on its import. Recent geopolitical conflicts have further amplified concerns regarding the global EV market's resilience in handling cobalt potential supply risk shocks.
In this study, we use the 11th edition of the GTAP database, combined with micro-level data on the cost composition and supply structure of cobalt mining enterprises, to disaggregate a dataset covering the trade flows of cobalt commodities. We then construct a global multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that accounts for the unique characteristics of cobalt commodities to quantitatively analyze the impact of cobalt supply risks on the global EV market.
Our analysis focuses on assessing the EV market's resilience under various cobalt supply risk scenarios. Resilience is specifically defined as encompassing two capacities: resistance and recovery. Resistance capacity is measured by changes in production and import-export trade in the short term, while recovery capacity is gauged by the duration of production stabilization in the long term, as well as the time taken to develop alternative materials. We will analyze the research results from two perspectives: firstly, discussing from a global viewpoint how different levels of cobalt supply risks reshape the international trade structure of the EV market; secondly, examining the heterogeneity among countries in their resistance capacity and recovery capacity in the EV market under the conditions of cobalt supply risks.
The significance of this study lies in clarifying the impact of cobalt supply risks on the resilience of the EV market, providing crucial insights for policymakers tasked with navigating these challenges.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Version: DRAFT Apr 15
Created: Sun, Y. (4/14/2024)
Updated: Sun, Y. (5/28/2024)
Visits: 120
- Climate change policy
- Resources and circular economy
- Trade and the environment
- GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Transportation
- Supply chains

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