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GTAP Resource #7326

"GHG Emissions in Brazil by 2030"
by S Nazareth, Marcos, Rayan Wolf, Cicero Zanetti De Lima, Angelo Gurgel and Geraldo Martha

Given the extent and importance of the agricultural sector in Brazil, strategies have been adopted to promote sustainability in agriculture, such as investments in technological development aimed at improving agribusiness activities in a more efficient and sustainable way. However, identifying the economic effects of these initiatives in a regionalized way and their spillovers to other regions in the country and in the world has been an empirical challenge. Thus, the main objective of the paper is to evaluate how projections of agricultural productivity changes in the world economy by 2030 can impact the general level of GHG emissions. More specifically, we aim to assess the changes in sectoral efficiency measured in terms of emissions per sectoral product. We developed and applied the PAEG-Cerrado Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which is fully coupled to the most recent version of GTAP, incorporating Land Use and Emissions modules. PAEG-Cerrado is disaggregated into 8 Brazilian states, the most important agricultural producers, and13 others regions of the world. Furthermore, 37 sectors are considered, along with three aggregates of production factors: capital, land and labor. We apply shocks on the productivity of primary factors to assess how increases in productivity in agricultural sectors would impact the emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. The main findings were (i) the two of the greatest agribusiness states in Brazil achieved a net positive balance in greenhouse gas emissions efficiency, signaling few environmental growth restrictions for the coming years; (ii) there was a robust and consistent increase in efficiency across all regions in sectors related to Brazilian livestock production related to adoption of new technologies; and (iii) however, there was a deterioration in emissions efficiency in other sectors of states traditionally relevant to the Brazilian economy.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2024
Version: Work in Porgress
Created: S Nazareth, M. (4/15/2024)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/22/2024)
Visits: 76
- Climate impacts
- Agricultural policies
- Technological change

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