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GTAP Resource #7329

"Exploring Regional Heterogeneity in Food Systems Transformation: A Multi-Model Ensemble Perspective"
by Diniz Oliveira, Thais, Marina Sundiang, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Matthew Gibson, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Felicitas Beier, Alex Popp, Willem-Jan Willem-Jan, Hans van Meijl, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Maksym Chepeliev, Detlef Van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest, Jonathan Doelman, Petr Havlik, Marta Kozicka, Keith Wiebe, Abhijeet Mishra, Tomoko Hasegawa, Marco Springmann, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jordan Hristov, Ignacio Perez Dominguez, Herrero Mario, Page Kyle and Ronald Sands

Understanding the socioeconomic implications of food systems transformation requires exploring regional differences. Using a multi-model ensemble of nine global economic models, this paper investigates the socioeconomic implications of two different futures, a business-as-usual and the envisioned future food system. The transformation scenario is composed of dietary change, productivity growth, and halving food loss and waste. The advantage of the multi-model ensemble is to capture uncertainties of different food systems futures. We find that food is becoming more affordable in all regions, but with heterogeneity across food groups. The median price of agricultural products falls by 16% under the transformed food system compared to current trends, mostly driven by a 28% decline in prices of livestock products. The ensemble suggests uncertainties regarding the direction of change in prices of vegetables, fruits, and nuts across all regions. Ensuring a healthy diet for all brings about significant changes in food production and shifts the regional dynamics of trade, with a particular regional dominance in trading specific food groups. In such world, the agricultural sector reshapes and restructures, exposing land-abundant regions to potential socioeconomic implications, and environmental burdens of food systems transformation. A demand-side transformation is feasible but entails political effort to ease the transition of the most vulnerable regions and targeting their vulnerable sectors. This analysis offers science-based insights to guide policymaking in food systems, especially to ensure a transition based on equity principles and actions whereby sustainable development can be achieved.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Version: 1
Created: Diniz Oliveira, T. (4/15/2024)
Updated: Diniz Oliveira, T. (6/7/2024)
Visits: 607
- Land use
- Food prices and food security
- Economic geography
- Partial and general equilibrium models
- Not Applicable

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