GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7346 |
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"Climate Mitigation Policies, Comparative Advantage in Trade and Restructuring of the Global Value Chains (GVCs)" by Chepeliev, Maksym, Maryla Maliszewska and Wen Jin Yuan Abstract This paper uses a combination of the TIMES Integrated Assessment model (TIAM-WORLD) and global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model ENVISAGE to analyze the impact of future climate mitigation policies. Simulation results indicate that on the macro level, the cost of putting the global economy on the low carbon transition pathways is manageable — stylized modeling suggests that even under the most ambitious climate mitigation scenario, a global GDP declines by only 1.4 percent in 2050 relative to baseline. Meanwhile, with increasing climate mitigation efforts, low carbon intensive sectors, such as electronics and transportation equipment, gain their share in global exports. The extent of such an expansion across countries is largely driven by the carbon revenue recycling approach, as well as carbon intensity of the corresponding production processes across countries. Finally, in terms of GVC participation metrics, our stylized modeling results indicate that while fossil fuels and energy intensive sectors experience a reduction in the GVC participation rates following an implementation of climate policies, service sectors and light manufacturing activities see a moderate increase in their involvement to the global values chains. These include such highly GVC-integrated commodities like computers and electronics and other light manufacturing goods. Thus, our analysis suggests that the climate mitigation policies stimulate higher integration into the GVCs of low carbon intensive commodities, while economies that specialize in such goods have better opportunities in navigating the low emission development transition. |
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- Climate change policy - Climate impacts - Trade and the environment - Dynamic modeling - Global |
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Public Access  Paper (1.3 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
