GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7463 |
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"Economywide Tradeoffs of Rwanda’s Cattle Sector Development and Foot-and-Mouth Disease Challenges" by Jean-Pierre, Ralph, Emerta Asaminew Aragie, Karl Rich, Dolapo Enahoro and Sirak T Bahta Abstract Rwanda’s cattle sector is an important component of its agricultural economy, contributing to employment, income generation, and food security. However, the sector’s development faces challenges, particularly the recurrent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which disrupt production and market dynamics. This study assesses the tradeoffs associated with cattle sector development and FMD management through a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and multiplier analysis, projecting macroeconomic impacts, including GDP, employment, and wages, under four FMD outbreak and control scenarios: no control, targeted vaccination, quarantine, and a combined strategy. The Rwanda CGE model integrates detailed economic interactions across sectors and factors of production for a broader analysis of policy and external shocks. By incorporating data from the herd dynamics model (HDM) and the Rwanda FMD spread model (Rw-FMD), the CGE captures interactions between livestock productivity, disease outbreaks, and economic outcomes. HDM projects herd sizes and productivity using reproduction, offtake, and mortality rates, while Rw-FMD models the spread and impact of FMD under various control measures. These inputs adjust productivity parameters in the CGE model, simulating how FMD-induced disruptions affect cattle output, sectoral linkages, and macroeconomic indicators. The cattle sector accounted for 2.4% of Rwanda’s GDP in 2022. In the “no control” scenario, this share decreases to 2.39% by 2030. In contrast, targeted vaccination and combined strategies lead to increases to 2.45% and 2.46%, respectively. Employment multipliers show every job in the cattle sector creates 1.08 additional jobs. Wages also improve, especially under the combined strategy, with primary-educated labor seeing a 4.24% increase by 2030. The combined approach show the greatest gains and supports inclusive growth. |
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- Agricultural policies - Domestic policy analysis - Economic development - Health - Dynamic modeling - Partial and general equilibrium models - Africa (East) |
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Public Access  Paper (549.6 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
