GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7504 |
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"What Makes a Trade Agreement Effective? The case of the AfCFTA" by Fontagné, Lionel, Anthonin Levelu, Jean-Christophe Maur, Nadia Rocha and Gianluca Santoni Abstract This paper examines the role of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), and the policies covered in the agreement, in the economic integration of African economies. First, the paper finds that the effect of PTAs on trade and welfare for Africa is lower relative to other regions, possibly due to the scope and content of their agreement. African PTAs are found to be of Medium/Low ambition, as classified in one of three categories with the PTA clustering algorithm used in this paper. The AfCFTA, which entered into force in 2019, offers the prospect of harmonizing existing regional integration under a single, comprehensive mega-regional trade agreement. As currently negotiated, the AfCFTA is classified as a Medium PTA, which raises the question as to whether deepening the agreement would further strengthen the integration of the African continent, and improve overall welfare and trade. We provide a General Equilibrium counterfactual analysis in which we show that if the AfCFTA were a deeper trade agreement (i.e. a switch from its current Medium to Deep trade agreement) substantial gains from trade would arise, with a 0.7% welfare gain on average. Finally, using feature attribution methodologies, the paper offers a novel way of investigating which policy areas would be involved in changing the classification of PTAs to Deep agreements, and applies the approach to the AfFCTA. A conclusion from this research is that trade disciplines and enforceability would be important features of a deeper AfCFTA. |
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- Preferential trading arrangements - Partial and general equilibrium models - Econometric methods - Africa (Central) - Africa (East) - Africa (North) - Africa (Southern) - Africa (West) |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access No documents have been attached. Restricted Access  Conference-Paper.pdf (4.9 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)(Restricted to: 28th Annual Conference Participant) Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
