GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7737 |
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"Generative AI and Occupational Change in Australia: A Task-Based CGE Analysis" Authors: Lennox, James and Janine Dixon Abstract This paper analyses the long-run labour-market and macroeconomic implications of generative AI (GenAI) using a task- and occupation-based computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. Unlike partial-equilibrium task-based approaches or CGE studies representing automation as coarse labour–capital substitution, the framework models augmentation and automation as endogenous, competing task technologies within a 45-industry, 97-occupation general-equilibrium structure. The model is calibrated using separate occupational exposure scores for augmentation and automation potential. In a reference simulation with full and broad GenAI adoption, real GDP rises by 29.8%, while welfare rises by only 16.2%, reflecting a more capital-intensive equilibrium: investment’s share of GDP increases from 34.5% to 40.7%. Direct task-level productivity improvements account for roughly one third of the GDP gain, with the majority arising through induced capital deepening and general-equilibrium reallocation. These qualitative patterns are robust to alternative assumptions about global export demand. The dominant labour-market effect is a reconfiguration of task composition within occupations rather than large-scale displacement between them. Approximately 46.7% of tasks are augmented and 9.1% automated, affecting around two thirds of all work. Gross task reallocation is of similar magnitude, while net employment shifts across occupations remain modest, with losses concentrated in lower-skilled white-collar roles. At the aggregate level, the adjustment is accompanied by a shift in factor incomes, with the labour share declining and capital capturing a corresponding increase. |
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- Technological change - Model extension/development - Oceania |
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Public Access  Paper (1.9 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s) Presentation (2.0 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
