GTAP Resources: Resource Display
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"Regional Impacts of Iron Ore Production Trajectories in Minas Gerais (Brazil): Evidence from a Dynamic CGE Model" Authors: Souza, Gessica Abstract This paper assesses the long-run regional economic impacts of alternative iron ore production trajectories in Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a dynamic interregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Iron ore projections for 2023–2050 were constructed through an econometric framework linking output to external demand — proxied by Chinese imports via log-linear OLS regression — and domestic demand, modelled as a function of Brazilian GDP growth. The resulting annual growth rates were implemented as exogenous shocks to the iron ore sector activity level under three scenarios (realistic, optimistic, pessimistic) in a recursive-dynamic Johansen model covering 13 Intermediate Geographic Regions (RGInts) and 23 sectors, with capital accumulation, interregional labor mobility, Armington trade substitution, and Stone–Geary household preferences. Results show that iron ore deceleration reduces state GDP below the baseline for approximately 28 years across all scenarios. Regional impacts are highly heterogeneous: Barbacena, where iron ore represents roughly 11% of regional output, records the largest accumulated loss (-17.9% relative to baseline by 2050), followed by Belo Horizonte (-10.3%) and Ipatinga. More diversified regions such as Juiz de Fora are also affected through input–output linkages (-4.0%). Sectoral transmission extends beyond extraction to flat steel, pig iron, fabricated metal products, construction, and motor vehicles. Regional vulnerability is shaped by the depth of intersectoral linkages and productive specialization, with direct implications for diversification policy and long-run regional development planning. |
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- Conventional energy - Other data bases and data issues - Non-competitive markets - Economic development - Dynamic modeling - Econometric methods - South America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7764 (951.9 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
