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GTAP Resource #7885

"Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism vs. Carbon Tax: General Equilibrium Insights from South Africa"
Authors: Bohlmann, Jessika, Heinrich Bohlmann, Margaret Chitiga, Roula Inglesi-Lotz, Bongeka Lushaba and David Suarez-Cuesta


Abstract
This paper studies whether domestic carbon tax reforms in South Africa can reduce the negative trade and welfare effects of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Under a Computable General Equilibrium approach, we combine tariff increases with domestic carbon pricing reforms. We study several scenarios: (1) a baseline scenario with the actual CBAM coverage and South Africa’s carbon taxation regime; (2) a policy scenario where the CBAM is extended to indirect emissions and additional national carbon tax reforms such as an increased effective rate and broadening coverage to include Eskom; and (3) a scenario considering the full CBAM scope and imposing a comprehensive domestic carbon price with minimum exemptions. This approach enables us to examine domestic fiscal responses to CBAM. Our findings will support South Africa’s decarbonisation pathway with evidence-based data.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version: Paper - DRAFT: NOT FOR PUBLICATION
Created: Bohlmann, J. (4/15/2026)
Updated: Bohlmann, J. (4/15/2026)
Visits: 21
- Environmental policies
- Economic growth
- Partial and general equilibrium models
- Africa (Southern)
- European Union


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Draft, not final, not ready for publication or distribution


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