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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #934

"Integration of the Central European Economies into the EU"
by Swaminathan, Padma, Martina Brockmeier and Thomas Hertel


Abstract
The paper analyzes the likely impacts of an EU enlargement to include the seven Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC-7): Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, the Czech and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria and Romania. For this purpose a modified version of the multi-region applied general equilibrium GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model is employed. Using post-Uruguay Round levels of protection for non-agriculture and the latest protection estimates of the European Commission for agriculture, two different integration scenarios are conducted. In the first experiment CEEC-7 accession into the EU-15 is simulated in conjunction with reform to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and labor market rigidities. It therefore reflects the difficulty which CEEC-7 have faced in adjusting to a market economy. In contrast to that, the second experiment quantifies the longer run effects, when labor is assumed to adjust fully to the shocks. Overall, the experiments show that economic integration would result in very substantial increases of both crop and livestock production on the CEEC-7 which is mostly absorbed by the EU-15. Using the conservative approach of holding the rate of direct producer subsidies in the CEEC-7 at current level, we find that the net budgetary consequences of EU integration for agricultural expenditures are relatively modest in the context of a reformed CAP.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Published
By/In: Agraroekonomische Studien, Vauk Verlag Kiell
Date: 1998
Version:
Created: Brockmeier, M. (2/19/2002)
Updated: Dimaranan, B. (2/21/2002)
Visits: 2,931
- Europe (Eastern)
- Europe (Western)


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