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GTAP Resource #964

"Three Future Scenarios for Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Region in Australia"
by Adams, Philip

MMRF-Green is a bottoms-up model of the economies of Australia¡¦s six states and two territories. It models each region as an economy in its own right, with region-specific prices, region-specific consumers, region-specific industries, and so on. This theoretical structure is supported by a database containing explicit representations of intra-regional, inter-regional and international trade flows based on regional input-output data developed at the Centre of Policy Studies.
The current MMRF-Green database recognises 52 commodities produced by 46 industries. Of the 52 commodities, 26 are related to energy and transport. There are four primary sources of energy and six refinery products. The refinery products are produced by a single industry. There are six electricity industries and nine transport sectors. For each transport mode, the provision of freight services is treated separately from the provision of passenger services.
Each solution of MMRF-Green produces pictures of Australia¡¦s regions at a high level of detail for a particular year. The model can also produce a sequence of annual solutions, linked together by ensuring, for example, that the quantities of opening capital stocks in any year equal the quantities of closing stocks in the previous year. This allows the model to make forecasts for the regional economies at a high level of detail over periods of policy relevance (say up to 10 years). The starting point for these forecasts is a set of scenarios for the macro economy supplied by a specialist-forecasting agency. The role of MMRF-Green is to forecast a microeconomic picture consistent with the macroeconomic scenarios and other inputs.
The objective of this paper is to describe the latest set of forecasts for energy use and greenhouse-gas emissions derived from the model. These forecasts have been made for the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO), which is the sponsor of the work. Three scenarios are reported and discussed. Most attention is given to the central case, which is our preferred scenario. The other two cases are upper and lower scenarios that provide plausible ranges for the forecast values of critical variables.
The forecasts have two main purposes.
1. They provide information to the AGO about likely future trends in energy use and gas emissions, taking into account likely changes in the structure of the economy.
2. They provide a realistic base case from which to calculate the answers to the traditional "what if" questions relating to energy and greenhouse, including the effects of greenhouse abatement programs under the Kyoto protocol, and possible changes to the structure of fuel taxation.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2002 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 5th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Taipei, Taiwan
Date: 2002
Created: Adams, P. (4/9/2002)
Updated: Bacou, M. (7/2/2002)
Visits: 1,969
No keywords have been specified.

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