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GTAP Resource #3859

"Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Market and East Asian Economies"
by Chen, Chi-Chung, Ching-Cheng Chang and Shih-Hsun Hsu

During the 20th century, increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) causes average surface temperature to increase by 0.74℃ and causes the extent of climate change impacts more severe. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) pointed out that global economic loss of crops, fishery, water resources, and human health induced by climate change in the period of 1991-2005 is approximately US$1,190 billion. Furthermore, according to OECD-FAO 2011-2020 Agricultural outlook, price volatility is driven by a multitude of factors. The most frequent and significant factor causing volatility is the unpredictable weather condition. Climate change is altering weather pattern, however, its impact on extreme weather events is not clear.
The objective of this study is to examine how climatic factors influence crop yield distribution and to predict the degree of climate change inducing variations in crop yield distribution in the future. The first step is to combine the Crop Yield Model estimated results and climate factors data predicted from five climate models (that is, hadcm3, MIROC3_2_MEDRES, ECHAM5,CSIRO-MK30, and CNRM_CM3), and with the assumption of IPCC (2007) A1B scenario. This study makes use of the Just-Pope production function (Just and Pope, 1978, 1979) to investigate how climate factors affect the mean and variability of crop yield. The data set used in this study is the GTAP database Version 7 that refers to the base year 2004. The database provides disaggregated data with 113 regions and 57 sectors.
Data on yield, crop planted area, and national agricultural area is from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO), and the period of data ranges from 1961 to 2009. The data on precipitation and temperature use the main related crop region in each ten major production countries as representations from USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis. The temperature data contains the mean and variance ob...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Created: Hsu, S. (4/29/2012)
Updated: Hsu, S. (4/29/2012)
Visits: 1,735
- Domestic policy analysis
- Trade and the environment
- European Union
- Commonwealth of Independent States

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