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GTAP Resource #3953

"Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh: An Economy-Wide Analysis"
by Banerjee, Onil, Moogdho Mahzab, Selim Raihan and K. M. Nabiul Islam

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Temperatures are projected to rise implying greater crop evapotranspiration. Sea level rise will reduce arable land supply and increase storm surges and saline intrusion. Increased surface water inflows and greater monsoonal precipitation will increase flooding. Impacts on agriculture will be determined by the availability of agricultural land, how precipitation may compensate for increased evapotranspiration, the carbon dioxide fertilization effect, and the potential to increase irrigation.

The Bangladeshi Government aspires to offer its people a comparable standard of living to that of middle-income countries by 2021, with an emphasis on food security and poverty reduction. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate how climate change may affect agricultural output, poverty and food security. A social accounting matrix for Bangladesh, developed by Khondker and Raihan (2011) to support Bangladesh’s 6th five year development plan, is customized for this analysis. The climate change impacts simulated are (i) sea level rise and increased annual flooding, and; (ii) higher average temperatures which increase crop evapotranspiration.

With Bangladesh’s increasing population and negative climate change impacts, agricultural output, without the development and implementation of adaptation strategies, may be insufficient to meet food security targets. The level of output to meet these targets may be estimated based on basic caloric intake under assumptions of population and economic growth. Following the cost of basic needs approach and the Government’s definition of a food poverty line of 2,122 Kcal, we estimate the level of agricultural output that would be required to meet this target and the productivity gains that would enable this level of production to be achieved.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Created: Banerjee, O. (5/1/2012)
Updated: Banerjee, O. (5/1/2012)
Visits: 1,591
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Economic development
- The GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Asia (East)

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