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GTAP Resource #4116

"Overview and key findings from the global economic model comparison component of the Agricultural Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)"
by Von Lampe, Martin, Dirk Willenbockel and Gerald C. Nelson


Abstract
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for responses to the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Version: 1
Created: Von Lampe, M. (4/12/2013)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/13/2013)
Visits: 1,025
- Dynamic modeling
- Climate impacts
- Land use
- Food prices and food security


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