GTAP Resources: Resource Display
GTAP Resource #4118 |
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"A Note on Market Access Reforms in Agriculture in the Trans-Pacific Partnership" by Burfisher, Mary, John Dyck, Amanda M. Countryman, Birgit Meade, Lorraine Mitchell, John Wainio and Steven Zahniser Abstract This report quantifies the economic effects of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The study uses the GTAP model with the GTAP v8 2007 database, updated to 2014. Two scenarios were modeled to reflect developments between 2014 and 2025—the assumed implementation period for the TPP. The “baseline scenario” simulates projected growth in GDP and endowments, changes in diets, and the implementation of preferential and unilateral tariff reforms already committed to in the region. A “TPP” scenario adds a hypothetical, full elimination of intra-TPP tariffs and tariff-rate quotas to the network of trade agreements. The differences between the scenarios capture the effects of the TPP agreement on members’ economies in 2025. The value of agricultural trade among TPP signatories will be 6 percent, or $8.5 billion, higher in 2025 under the TPP scenario than in the baseline (in 2007 U.S. dollars). Japan and the U.S. will account for the largest shares of the increases in intraregional imports and exports, respectively. The U.S. will supply about one-third of the expansion in intraregional agricultural exports— U.S. agricultural exports to TPP partners in 2025 is estimated to be 5 percent ($2.8 billion) higher in 2025 due to the TPP. Japan will account for almost 70 percent of the expansion in intraregional agricultural imports—the value of its agricultural imports from its TPP partners in 2025 is expected to be 14 percent ($5.8 billion) higher than the baseline. By commodity, and in absolute value terms, the expansion of trade will be greatest for bovine meats (includes beef and mutton), “other food products” ( includes processed foods and feeds) and rice. Elimination of tariffs and TRQs in the TPP scenario will have, at most, small positive effects on members’ real gross domestic product (GDP). Trade diversion will also be modest. |
Resource Details (Export Citation) | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Preferential trading arrangements - Asia (East) - Asia (South-Central) - Asia (Southeast) - North America - South America |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM