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GTAP Resource #4195

"Evaluating the Economic Challenges to Adaptation and Mitigation in the SSP Scenarios"
by De Bruin, Kelly, Rob Dellink and Elisa Lanzi

For the 5th Assessment Report, the IPCC has asked the international research community to develop reference scenarios. The new scenario framework for the integrated analysis of future climate change comprises two main elements (see Moss et al., 2010): (i) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and (ii) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
The SSPs combine qualitative information in general storylines with quantitative information on possible future developments of emissions and their main socioeconomic drivers, including population and per capita income. They do not contain estimate impacts of climate policies and reflect different views on “no climate policy” developments for the 21st century.
The different SSP storylines are described in O’Neill et al. (2012). These storylines are constructed around two axes: challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. In SSP1, the challenges for both adaptation and mitigation are low, as relatively rapid income growth is combined with substantially reduced reliance on natural resources. This is achieved through quick technological change and through high levels of international cooperation. In SSP2, current trends more or less continue, with moderate progress made in terms of income convergence. In SSP3, economic growth is much slower, due to a lack of international cooperation, slow technological progress, low education levels and high population growth. A lack of development of clean technologies imply that environmental pressure (and thus mitigation challenges) will be high, and the low income levels in developing countries pose severe challenges to adaptation. SSP4 depicts a world where high-income countries use technological advances to stimulate economic growth; thus there is a high capacity to mitigate, In contrast, developments in low-income countries is hampered by very low education levels and international barriers to trade, implying high challenges for adaptation. Finally, SSP5 represents a s...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: De Bruin, K. (4/15/2013)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/2/2013)
Visits: 1,628
- Baseline development
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Climate change policy
- Economic growth
- Not Applicable

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